Neil
Strachan, Adoption and Supply of a Distributed Energy
Technology
Committee: Hadi Dowlatabadi - chair (EPP), Granger Morgan
(EPP/ECE/Heinz), Scott Farrow (EPP), Kathleen Carley (SDS/EPP),
and Simon Minett (Cogen Europe)
An
engineering economic simulation model of engine cogen
investments was developed for the UK, and extended for
the Netherlands. A minimum economic size threshold was
found, largely due to scale invariant maintenance costs.
For the UK, a 140kWe unit carried a 50% chance of a positive
NPV on investment. Over 60% of early UK adoptions of this
distributed technology were questionable economic investments.
In the Netherlands, lower capital and maintenance costs,
together with reduced grid connection costs, reduced the
minimum economic size threshold to 100kWe. Available subsidies
brought this size threshold to 70kWe and improved returns
for all units.
Despite
this, larger and more profitable units were installed
in the Netherlands, due to innovative operation aided
by the proactive role of distribution utilities. Larger
installations were sized for on-site heat requirements
with electricity export providing revenue. Distributed
cogen became the most successful tool for CO2 reductions
under the Netherlands National Environment Plan.
We
compared the fuel use, private, and social costs of three
distributed and three centralized gas-fired generation
technologies to meet different demand requirements over
a range of heat to power ratios (HPR). On fuel use alone,
we compared distributed generation to CCGT plus heat boiler
plant. Fuel cells are more efficient if the HPR>0.3, gas
turbines if HPR>0.7, engines if HPR>1.4, and micro-turbines
if HPR>1.7. Comparing decentralized technologies to gas
turbines, fuel cells are always more efficient, engines
are if HPR>2 and micro-turbines are if HPR>2.4.
Comparing
total private costs plus social costs from CO2, SO2, and
NOX and CO emissions, micro-turbines are the lowest cost
technology, especially at higher heat loads. Engines are
also very competitive providing their NOX and CO emissions
are controlled. Gas turbines also offer low overall costs
especially at lower heat loads. Centralized plant suffers
due to high distribution costs and energy losses, although
cogeneration improves their performance.
Strachan
- continued on pg. 7
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Margaret Taylor,
The Influence of Government Actions on Innovative Activities
in the Development of Environmental Technologies to Control
Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from Stationary Sources
Committee: Ed Rubin - co-chair (EPP/MechE), David Hounshell
- co-chair (History/SDS/EPP), Scott Farrow (EPP), and Linda
Argote (GSIA)
Environmental
control technology is a rich area in which to study the
influence of government actions on innovation. This dissertation
investigated the case of sulfur dioxide (SO2) control technologies
for electric power plants. In studying innovation in this
case, it was important to understand the details of these
technologies, as well as their long organizational history,
which have been affected by government actions ranging from
government-sponsored research and technology transfer mechanisms
to national regulatory events.
Innovative
activities were investigated through: patent activity analysis;
technical content analysis and researcher co-authorship
network analysis in a conference held for over twenty years;
learning curve analysis for eighty-eight U.S. power plants;
and a dozen expert interviews from a variety of innovative
actors. Innovative outcomes were investigated through: analysis
of observed improvements in newly installed technologies
over time; evaluation of historic cost studies on standardized
systems; and expert interviews.
Several
policy-relevant findings resulted from this dissertation.
(1) The existence of national regulation stimulated inventive
activity more than government research support. (2) The
existence and anticipation of government regulation appeared
to spur inventive activity, while regulatory stringency
appeared to drive both inventive activity and the communication
process underlying knowledge transfer and diffusion. (3)
The regulatory-forced adoption of SO2 control technologies
led to learning. Operating experience with the equipment
resulted in significant cost improvements. This learning
curve effect is comparable with findings in many other industries
and is likely to be useful in predictions of costs of future
environmental technologies. (4) Performance
Taylor
- continued on pg. 8
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Patrick Gurian, Setting Drinking Water Standards: Historical
perspective and simulation modeling
Committee: Mitchell Small - chair (CEE/EPP), David Dzombak
(CEE), Sue McNeil (Univ. of Illinois), Mark Schervish (Stats),
and Joel Tarr (History/EPP/Heinz)
Setting
drinking water standards involves both technical knowledge
and an understanding of societal values and institutions.
To provide perspective and tools for evaluating these issues
a set of historical and current regulatory assessments were
performed. The first case study considers the history of
the 1914 Public Health Service drinking water standards
and is based on archival materials and journal articles.
A simulation model to estimate the costs and benefits of
proposed drinking water regulations on U.S. community water
systems is developed which simulates current contaminant
concentrations and existing treatment types based on fitted
statistical models. For systems that exceed any of the drinking
water standards included in the model, the costs and effectiveness
of alternative compliance strategies are simulated, and
the least costly strategy capable of achieving compliance
with the standards is selected. This modeling approach allows
for quantitative estimates of the uncertainty in regulatory
impacts, geographic and size class specificity, and the
consideration of multiple standards simultaneously.
The
model is applied first to the case of a lower drinking water
standard for arsenic. The marginal cost-effectiveness of
different standards and the impacts of several alternative
regulatory approaches are considered. Discrepancies in previous
estimates of compli-
Gurian
- continued on pg. 9
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