J. Jason West, Studies in Natural and Human System Response Relevant to Global Environmental Change

Committee: Cliff Davidson (CEE/EPP), Hadi Dowlatabadi - co-chair (EPP), Dick Luthy (CEE), Spyros Pandis - co-chair (ChemE/EPP), Mitchell Small (CEE/EPP), and Gary Yohe (Wesleyan Univ.)

This thesis examines two important aspects of global change. Part 1 addresses climate forcing by fine particles. Using a non-urban continental aerosol, we estimate that the marginal forcing may vary strongly with sulfate concentration, from ­ 550 to +20 W (g SO4)-1 at 80% relative humidity. Average measures of forcing may therefore significantly overestimate the effect of changes in sulfate concentration. Assuming thermodynamic equilibrium, we estimate that the conditions for a nonlinear response to changes in sulfate concentration are common in the eastern US in winter, and uncommon in summer. Decreases in sulfate concentration may therefore increase aerosol nitrate and may be up to 50% less effective than expected at reducing annual average PM2.5. The annual average marginal forcing is not expected to vary over land masses by more than a factor of four. In many areas of interest, it will vary by less than a factor of two.

Part 2 develops methods for assessing the economic impacts of sea level rise, using the bounding cases of no foresight and perfect foresight. We use a disaggregated analysis which includes the effects of storms, and model market valuation and private investor decisions dynamically. Using data from the National Flood Insurance Program and a hypothetical community, we estimate that the increase in storm damage due to sea level rise is small (< 5% of total sea level rise damages), but could become more significant under other reasonable assumptions or where dune erosion increases storm damage.

Work supported by a graduate research fellowship from the NSF and by NSF grants ATM-9508051, ATM-9625718, BCS-9218045 and SBR-9521914, the US DoE grant DE-FG02-95ER62105, the US EPA grant R-824793010, and the EPRI grant RP-3441-14.

Rahul Tongia, Issues in Electric Power in India: Challenges and Opportunities

Committee: V.S. Arunachalam - chair (EPP/MSE/Robotics), Benoît Morel (EPP), Granger Morgan (EPP/ECE/Heinz), and Shyam Sunder (GSIA)

This thesis explores three facets of Indian electric power. The current regulatory environment and guidelines for independent power producers and other generators is analyzed. Problems with the existing guidelines are discussed, and improvements are suggested.

India's nuclear power program, based on indigenous materials and technology, and fast breeder reactors, is represented as holding great promise to meet energy needs. The technical validity of the plan is examined. The analysis shows that breeding is unlikely to occur at anywhere near the rates envisioned, leading to slow growth. Domestic uranium reserves are limited. To increase the share of nuclear power in the coming decades, India should consider the construction of a number of large thermal reactors based on indigenous and imported uranium. Policy options for such changes to India's nuclear power program are presented.

The third element of the thesis provides an assessment of a gas pipeline from the Middle East to supply natural gas to India and Pakistan. Such a pipeline would be shared by both countries, and would be a strong confidence building measure, offering a unique opportunity for cooperation. As natural gas pipelines exhibit significant economies of scale, a shared pipeline would also offer the lowest price natural gas for both countries. An overland gas pipeline does not depend solely on economic viability, but on political acceptance as well. This study addresses some of the potential concerns, suggesting options for overcoming security of supply worries.

Work supported by the Rockefeller Foundation and the W. Alton Jones Foundation.

_____________________________________________________________________