Arnett Explores Relation
of Military
Capability to Regional Security
Oxford University Press has just published Eric Arnett's (EPP Ph.D.
1988) latest book Military Capacity and the Risk of War: China, India,
Pakistan and Iran. For this project, Arnett, who directs the Military
Technology and International Security Project at the Stockholm Institute
of Peace Research, has assembled a diverse group of experts to explore
the relationship between military technology and security behavior.
The book asks: when does the legitimate application of military technology
to the problem of national defense become needlessly provoca-tive; what
obstacles must developing countries overcome if they hope to use military
technology effectively; and, when might military technology itself become
a cause of conflict?
Beyond assembling the team of researchers,
and editing the book, Arnett authored chapters titled "Beyond threat
perception: Assessing military capacity and reducing the risk of war
in southern Asia," and "Military research and development in southern
Asia: Limited capabilities despite impressive resources."
Contrary to a common misperception, the book
argues that the end of the Cold War has seen a collapse in the avail-ability
of military technology to China, India, Pakistan, and Iran. Although
China continues to prepare to use military means of reunifying with
Taiwan, a campaign as currently envisioned by Chinese planners is very
unlikely to succeed and is becoming less feasible as Taiwan's conventional
defenses are bolstered by Western arms suppliers. Despite recent
arms deals with Russia, China's conventional forces are inadequate to
deter the United States from supporting Taiwan in the event of war.
Arnett on
Risk of War - continued on pg. 12
Pollution Prevention -
continued from pg. 1
use of the methods in project
management and regulation.
In addition to this new work in process design, two grants
from the U.S. Department of Energy are supporting a substantial broadening
of EPP's long-standing research on the environmental design of energy
systems. With new support from the Federal Energy Technology Center
(DOE/FETC) Rubin and Diwekar are expanding work on "Development and
Application of Optimal Design Capability for Coal Gasification Systems."
Over the past five years, this research has developed new computational
tools for the simulation, optimization, and synthesis of complex processes
in the presence of uncertainties. These have been applied to identify
the most robust, efficient and economical way of designing advanced
power generation systems to minimize environmental emissions.
Successful applications to energy technologies have spurred DOE's
interest in new applications in the field of environmental management.
A pilot project now underway in collaboration with DOE's Idaho National
Energy and Environmental Laboratory is modeling various thermal treatment
options for disposing of mixed low-level nuclear wastes. Uncertainties
and variability in waste composition and process performance parameters
make the optimal design choice a complex problem for which the new design
methods are ideally suited. In parallel to this effort, the researchers
will continue to explore new applications to advanced energy conversion
technologies that promise substantially higher efficiencies and low
greenhouse gas emissions. |
|
EPP Projects Address China's
Environment
Environmental
quality in China and its relationship to China's rapid economic and social
development are subjects of active research within EPP. Much of
the work is being done with support from the NSF Center for Integrated
Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change. Research Engineer
Keith Florig (EPP Ph.D. 1986) coordinates these activities, many of which
involve collaborations between EPP and Chinese researchers in areas such
as public perceptions of risk, air pollution exposure and health effects,
and the influence of weather and economic variables on ambient air pollution.
Since 1990, Chinese social scientists have mounted
over a dozen surveys of citizens' concerns about the environment. Dr.
Florig is collaborating with Dr. Xiaolin Xi (EPP Ph.D. 1992; EPP Adjunct
Assistant Prof.) and his colleagues at the National Research Institute
for Science and Technology Development in the State Science and Technology
Commission, to review these studies in light of the international literature
on public perceptions of the environment. In October, Dr. Xi organized
a workshop in Beijing that brought Chinese social scientists who had studied
public perception together with government agencies interested in summarizing
and understanding evolving public perceptions of the environment in China.
Results of the workshop will be reported in both English and Chinese.
The nationwide health impacts of air pollution
in China were estimated in a study completed last Spring by Dr. Florig
and published as the cover story of the June 1997 issue of Environmental
Science & Technology. Combining results from Chinese epidemiological
and exposure studies, Florig found that air pollution is responsible for
about 1 in every 8 deaths in China, rivaling smoking as the leading cause
of death. About 100 thousand of the 1 million annual deaths from
air pollution in China are among children. The majority of air-pollution
related deaths occur among China's 700 million rural population who use
biomass and coal for household cooking and heating. These conditions
are expected to improve as economic growth makes higher quality fuels
and energy-efficient stoves more readily available and affordable.
The public health impacts of various sources
of air pollution depend not only on the quantity of pollutants emitted,
but also on the proximity of populations to those sources. EPP doctoral
student, Guodong Sun, is modeling the total exposure of Chinese urban
and rural populations to particulate air pollution. By summarizing
and combining Chinese data on emissions, indoor and outdoor pollutant
concentrations, and peoples' activity patterns, Mr. Sun hopes to
rank major sources of Chinese air pollution by the extent of the health
damage that they produce.
From May through August, EPP hosted visiting
scholar Xiao Zhang, Associate Professor from the Institute for Quantitative
and Technical Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing.
Prof. Zhang collaborated with Dr. Florig and EPP Ph.D. student Jun Long
on a study of the relationship between air pollution levels in Chinese
cities and various weather and economic variables.
In June, EPP hosted a one-week visit by Professor
Xiaofei Xie from the Department of Psychology at Beijing University.
Professor Xie has done some of the first studies of risk perception in
China. During her visit, she gave a seminar presenting her work
and met with a number of Carnegie Mellon faculty with overlapping research
interests.
|
