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SUMMARIES OF RECENTLY COMPLETED EPP DOCTORAL THESIS

Felicia Wu, Bt or not Bt? Tools for regulatory decisions concerning genetically modified corn
Committee: Elizabeth Casman (EPP), Scott Farrow - chair (EPP), Benoît Morel (EPP), Granger Morgan (EPP/ECE/ Heinz), and Christopher Wozniak (EPA)

      This dissertation addresses the question of why many stakeholders are dissatisfied with the state of GM crop regulation in the U.S., analyzes a variety of regulatory tools that could inform the policy-making process, and provides recommendations on how to improve the Bt corn and other similar crops.
      Bt corn is regulated by three governmental agencies in the U.S. A policy analysis reveals both the strengths of this system as well as potential gaps that could lead to vulnerabilities. Four types of analysis to better inform policy makers are proposed and illustrated: benefit-cost analysis, economic impacts analysis, analysis of uncertainty, and analysis of public opinion (or “value-based decision-making”).
      Benefit-cost analysis shows that the current level of Bt corn planting provides a net benefit to U.S. society of several hundred million dollars. This represents a small fraction of total U.S. corn sales, although it involves an average 26% gain per acre in places where Bt corn is planted. The economic impacts analysis shows that Bt corn growers and industry are the largest beneficiaries of the benefits of Bt corn, while the greater public experiences no significant gain and non-Bt corn growers experience a 6.7% loss in revenue (due to overall increased supply of corn). Methods to quantify uncertainty for regulatory decision-making are developed using real and rational option theories. Finally, a public perception study of attitudes toward genetically modified foods is presented.
      A set of policy recommendations are made for improving Bt corn and other GM crop regulation in the United States. Work supported by an Environmental Protection Agency STAR Fellowship U-9155880-1-2 and the Center for the Study and Improvement of Regulation at Carnegie Mellon.

 

Timothy Johnson, Diffusion of Carbon Management Technologies; Science and Technology Policy; Quantitative and Qualitative Modeling for Decision Analysis
Committee: Howard Herzog (MIT), David Keith - chair (EPP), Granger Morgan (EPP/ECE/Heinz), and Edward Rubin (EPP/ MechE)
      This thesis analyzes how technologies to capture and sequester carbon dioxide in fossil-fired power plants might enter real electric utility systems given their existing mix of capital plant and dispatch order. A capacity planning and dispatch model is used to examine how the current distribution of generating units, natural gas prices, and other industry trends would affect the cost of CO2 control via carbon capture and sequestration in an actual U.S. electric market (PJM).
      The analysis finds that by the year 2025 plants with CO2 capture consistently provide significant reductions in base-load emissions at carbon prices near 100 $/tC, but do not offer an economical means of meeting peak demand unless CO2 reductions in excess of 80 percent are required. Various scenarios estimate the amount by which turnover of the existing generating infrastructure and the severity of criteria pollutant constraints reduce mitigation costs. sequestration in the seabed beneath the       A look at CO2 U.S. outer continental shelf complements this model-driven assessment by considering issues of risk, geological storage capacity, and regulation. Extensive experience with offshore oil and gas operations suggests that the technical uncertainties associated with outer continental shelf sequestration are not disposal under U.S. law and large. The legality of seabed CO2 international environmental agreements, however, is ambiguous, and the outer continental shelf may be the first region where these regulatory regimes clash over CO2 sequestration. Work supported by The Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change through a cooperative agreement between NSF (SBR-9521914) and Carnegie Mellon.


Kanchana Wanichkorn, The Role of Fixed Wireless Access Networks in the Deployment of Broadband Services and Competition in Local Telecommunications Markets

Committee: Alex Hills (EPP/SCS), Jon Peha (EPP/ECE), Marvin Sirbu - chair (EPP/ECE/IA), and Daniel Stancil (ECE)

      Through the use of an engineering-economic model, this thesis analyzes the cost structure of broadband fixed wireless access (BFWA) networks and examines their economic viability of providing voice over IP and broadband Internet access services as compared to Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) and cable modem networks. On average, costs of BFWA networks are higher than costs of DSL and cable modem networks. Until BFWA electronics become significantly cheaper, it is unlikely that BFWA will be a third option for broadband services in urban areas where both DSL and cable modem services are available. However, in rural areas, BFWA is the only viable choice to provide voice over IP and broadband Internet access services.
      If more spectrum becomes available, it can be used to lower costs of urban wireless networks but this will not reduce rural costs. However, the use of 700 MHz UHF spectrum instead of 2.6 GHz MMDS spectrum does lower costs, especially in rural areas, because of the longer range that is possible. To foster the development of BFWA in rural areas, we recommend at least 36 MHz of the upcoming 700 MHz spectrum be licensed in small geographic areas. This would offer an opportunity for providers interested in implementing BFWA networks in rural areas to outbid mobile providers focused on urban areas. Because of the cost advantage in rural areas, if and when broadband internet is included in the definition of universal service, BFWA networks should be qualified to receive universal service subsidies. Work supported in part by a grant from the Carnegie Mellon Information Networking Institute, the MIT Program on Internet & Telecoms Convergence, and the Royal Thai Government.

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